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The MacWorld Conference & Expo in San Francisco (MWSF) happens every year around this time, and Apple CEO Steve Jobs typically gives the keynote address. These keynotes are often fodder for speculation for rabid Mac fans for the weeks leading up to any MWSF, and with good reason. In 2002 Jobs announced the lamp-like iMac, iPhoto, and stated that Mac OS X would be the default operating system on all new Apple computers. In 2003 he introduced the 17″ PowerBook, the 12″ PowerBook, Safari, iLife and various other bits and pieces of kit. 2004 was a little light hardware-wise with the iPod mini and the Xserve G5, but there was also iLife ‘04 which includes GarageBand, and Jobs announced that the iPod had sold over two million units, pretty much owning the hard-drive based MP3 player market.

2004 has seen renewed excitement around Apple, with its stock price nearly tripling from mid-20s to just under $70. MWSF 2005 brings all kinds of rumours to the plate, from a collaboration between Apple and Motorola which will result in an iPhone to a new version of an iMac that will come without a monitor to a flash-based iPod. These three all have some basis in reality and have been rumoured about for a few months now. Of the three, the headless iMac looks most likely as Apple is suing Think Secret for disclosing the news about it on their website, a tactic that Apple has resorted to before to help protect their trade secrets and keep a firm hold on their releases. The flash-based iPod (possibly to be called the iPod micro) is rumoured to have about 1GB of space, enough for 240 songs, and cost between $100 and $150. MacityNet has pictures of a possible advertising poster for the iPod micro with the tagline “Life Is Random”. Some are saying that this lends credence to the rumour that the iPod micro will not have a display on it and will just be able to play songs using a shuffle function. Essentially all it will have is a Play/Pause button on it, supposedly.

I’m in favour of Apple moving into the flash-based MP3 player market as they’ve almost completely sewn up the higher-end hard-drive based market and can make some waves in the lower-end market. There is a lot of competition already established here, so Apple will have its work cut out for it. Given the experience they’ve had with selling iPods they should be able to make a dent there. But an MP3 player without a screen? Only being able to listen to songs randomly? I don’t know about that. Given Apple’s previous views on “do what you want” with music purchased from the iTunes Music Store I don’t see them locking people into one specific play mode. Some people do like to listen to albums straight through or have playlists in specific order, and they wouldn’t be happy with this random-only mode. I’m sure that I’m going to have to eat some of my words, but I just don’t see a random-only iPod. Flash-based, yes. Random-only? No. But then again, what could the “Life Is Random” slogan mean?

We’ll have to wait and see what Steve Jobs announces Tuesday. As with most MWSFs there will be disappointment afterwards, usually with people saying that the hardware is too expensive or under-powered or just stylish for the sake of being stylish. There were a remarkable number of remarkably wrong predictions about the iPod when it was first announced, like “A total waste of time” or “iPod is a good product, but nothing to get excited over” or “There’s no doubt it’s a cool device. They’ll just never sell any of them.” One prediction I can make is that there will probably be an equal number of wrong predictions and teeth-gnashing over each and every announcement by Jobs tomorrow.