Canadian government to fall Monday
- Fri Nov 25 2005
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On 28 November 2005 the Canadian government will fall.
On 24 November, Stephen Harper, leader of the Conservative Party and the Official Opposition, introduced a non-confidence motion
That this House has lost confidence in the Government.
This motion goes to vote on the 28th, and it will be voted in. The currently-ruling party, the Liberals, hold 133 seats in the 308-seat House of Commons. The other three parties — the Conservatives, the NDP, and the Bloc Québécois — have all said they’ll vote for the non-confidence motion. This triggers the dissolution of Parliament by the Governor General.
The election must happen at least 36 days after Parliament is dissolved and must happen on a Monday, so the earliest possible election date is 9 January 2006. Most analysts agree that the government will extend this to accomodate for the holidays, pushing back the election to either 16 or 23 January 2006.
The election promises to be especially bitter. Harper has said that the Liberals are linked with organized crime, which understandably has the Liberals spitting mad.
My pre-dissolution predictions: the Liberals will take the most seats, but reduced sharply to 114. The Conservatives will not make inroads because of their negative campaigning and the personal dislike of Stephen Harper by many Canadians, losing three seats to end up with 95. The big winners will be the NDP, gaining 18 to end up with 36, and the BQ, gaining 10 to hit 63. The Governor General will again ask the Liberals to form the government, but this government will fall quickly, possibly on the vote for the Throne Speech. At this point the Governor General will refuse to dissolve Parliament, citing the precedence of the King-Byng Affair, and will ask the Conservatives to form a coalition government with the Bloc Quebecois. Harper, recognizing that getting in bed with separatists won’t make him popular amongst his base of support, will refuse, and Parliament will be dissolved again. After that? Who knows.
Note: I’m not a parliamentarian, so I don’t know if the GG is actually allowed to refuse to dissolve Parliament when asked by the Prime Minister. It’d make for exciting times, though.
8 Responses to “Canadian government to fall Monday”
Sat Nov 26 2005
3:06 am
Brad, do you prefer this system to the American system that has regular, predictable elections? Why or why not?
Sat Nov 26 2005
10:10 am
I prefer it to the American system because I feel it holds the government more accountable for its actions. If a government knows that it absolutely will be in power for four years, there’s not much one can do to counteract that (short of rebellion or, depending on where you live, recall). Then again, this sort of thing only happens in minority governments. A majority government wouldn’t get into this sort of trouble, and could potentially just cram legislation through on the strength of their majority.
One major disadvantage to the government falling before it wants to is that there are major pieces of legislation that won’t be passed now. I think there are thirty-five bills up for approval by the Senate, and they’re working through the weekend to try to get some of them passed, but there’s no way they can get all of those bills through.
And it’s expensive to hold an election. And I think that frequent elections might cause the electorate to become disillusioned and not vote.
But I still like it better than the American system. :-)
Sun Nov 27 2005
4:43 am
I think the GG is allowed to refuse to dissolve parliament. It’s one of the nebulous ‘reserve’ powers of the crown. Something similar happened in a constitutional crisis in Australia in the 70s, afaik.
I personally find Harper creepy. He reminds me too much of the wackier elements of the Republican party down here. I don’t wish that on you folks up North.
Sun Nov 27 2005
12:14 pm
I can certainly see benefits and drawbacks. I do like the parliamentary system for the reasons you gave, mainly because I just don’t find accountability often in any level of American government. :sigh:
Sun Nov 27 2005
10:58 pm
minority governments are such a great thing… when the people in them aren’t complete imbeciles. unfortunately, this IS politics and it attracts a certain type…
stephen harper is creepier than creepy. he is dangerous and creepy. he comes from a bible-thumping evangelical foundation that makes Billy Graham look like a weak-willed wuss.
It would be exciting if the GG actually wrapped everyone on the knuckles, told jack layton to quit being a pompous self-important git and to get on with the task at hand. (jack layton is essentially a used car salesman)
it is a shame that candian politics requires characters/charisma to actually work, but that seems to be the case.
Mon Nov 28 2005
11:46 am
My God. I’m so sorry, Canada.
Wed Nov 30 2005
7:14 am
I hear the Bloc Q. might have a tough time gaining much, Quebecers aren’t as angry anymore, or so I hear. I didn’t know you were so into politics Brad. What do you think of different representitive election systems, like proportional representation or the one BC almost got?
Wed Nov 30 2005
2:28 pm
I don’t like the first past the post system currently in place, I’d rather see it replaced with something like the Single Transferrable Vote system that almost got in in BC.
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